Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Indian economic growth forecast 2012-2013

World Economic outlook - Indian economic growth forecast 2012-2013 : Several Indian and foreign brokerages are on a spree to cut India’s GDP growth forecast for fiscal years FY 12 and FY13. In the past few weeks a slew of brokerages – Maquarie, Morgan Stanley, Ambit Capital and several others have cut India’s GDP forecast for FY13 below 7%, raising worries that India will see a hard landing. On the other hand the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has kept India’s GDP growth forecast at 7.2% for calendar year 2012, improving to 8.2% in calendar year 2013.

What are the reasons why growth could fall below 7%? Delay in sanctioning new projects is one reason. “This will have a spillover effect on the GDP growth in the next few quarters,” said an economist with a reputed bank. If the growth falls below 7% for the next two consecutive quarters, than there is a high possibility of FY12 growth too slipping below 7%.

Indranil Pan, Chief Economist from Kotak Mahindra Bank said, “We have cut the growth forecast for FY13 to 6.9% mainly on expectations of slower growth in the services sector and flattish growth for the manufacturing sector.” The bank has a GDP growth estimate of 7.1% for FY 12. Read full Indian economic

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