World Economic outlook - asian economy 2012, led by China India and Indonesia : The global economic slowdown will affect Asia this year but the region will remain the economic powerhouse of the world, led by China, India and Indonesia, the head of the Asian Development Bank has said.
Haruhiko Kuroda said in an interview with The Associated Press yesterday that the bank expects Asian economies, excluding Japan, Australia and New Zealand, to grow by around 7% this year, down from about 7.5% in 2011 and 9% in 2010.
His slightly less rosy forecast was in sharp contrast to the gloomy International Monetary Fund announcement Tuesday that it was cutting its forecast for global economic growth this year to 3.3% from 4% because of a slowdown in the world economy and the likelihood of a mild recession in Europe.
Kuroda said regional and domestic demand in Asia are still "fairly robust" though external demand is lower "so GDP growth as a whole is also slowing."
He said Asia has already been affected by the ongoing European financial crisis in two ways, through the withdrawal of credit in Asia by many European banks and financial institutions and a drop in trade, which will impact China because Europe is its largest export market.
"If the situation further deteriorates seriously, that could affect Asia," Kuroda said. "So I really hope that the European financial crisis can be overcome."
Nonetheless, Kuroda predicted that China will continue to lead Asia's growth in 2012, expanding its economy by more than 8 per cent, followed by India at between 7-8% and Indonesia at around 6.5%.
The Asian Development Bank or ADB has 48 members and while most developing countries have a strong financial sector and reasonably good public sector, some have serious fiscal deficits like Pakistan, where huge floods have devastated the economy, he said.
It has experienced double-digit inflation in the last two years and growth of only about 3 per cent.
The ADB has been providing loans and grants, totaling $17 billion in 2011, to nearly 40 developing countries including Pakistan, 14 Pacific island countries with economic growth rates of about 3-4%, as well as Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Nepal, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and others, he said.
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