World Economic outlook - vietnam gdp growth outlook 2012 : Vietnam’s government has struggled this year to steady its economy, devaluing the dong as the currency weakened on the black market and raising borrowing costs to contain the fastest inflation in Asia.
Economic growth averaging about 7 percent over the past decade has helped Vietnam reach what the World Bank calls lower middle-income status, with per-capita income having increased more than ten-fold since the ruling Communist Party started market-oriented reforms in 1986.
the statistics office said Industry and construction, which accounted for 40 percent of the economy, expanded 5.53 percent in 2011, . Services, which made up 38 percent of GDP, grew 6.99 percent. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries, which were 22 percent of GDP, expanded 4 percent.
Exports rose 33.3 percent to $96.257 billion 2011, the General Statistics Office said yesterday. The trade gap narrowed to $9.5 billion from $12.6 billion in 2010.
Vietnam May Get 4.7pct GDP Growth In 2012
The international forecasts for Vietnam were given in the context that the world economy is still in confusion with the "financial bubble "management. Vietnam is possible to run a Gross Domestic Products (GDP) growth of 4.7 percent at least in 2012. In a better outlook, the country's GDP growth may reach 6.5 percent at most.
3 scenarios for Vietnam’s 2012 economic growth
on January 9th, 2012, the National Financial Supervisory Commission announced its report on Vietnam's three economic scenarios in 2012. Three possible scenarios for the country’s economic growth this year were unveiled yesterday by the National Committee for Financial Supervision.
In the first scenario, which is considered “a good one,” Vietnam ’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth will reach 6 to 6.3 percent, while inflation is restricted to 8 to 10 percent. The state budget’s overspending in 2012 is around 4.8 percent of GDP.
With a bright outlook on the global economy, and the stable economic development of the country’s major exporting markets such as the US and Japan, Vietnam’s export turnovers are expected to rise by 12 - 13 percent, while imports post a 13-14 percent increase this year.
The trade deficit would be equal to 11-12 percent of total export revenues. The rate recorded last year was 9.9 percent.
In the second premise, or the “average scenario,” the country’s GDP growth would stand at 5.6 to 5.9 percent, with the state economic sector accounting for up to 37 percent of the total social investment, and the private sector, 41 percent.
With state budget overspending expected to be 4.8 percent of GDP, the government debt would top 59.2 percent GDP. The National Committee for Financial Supervision said this is the most likely scenario, as the expected growth is close to the country’s real potential.
Finally, in the worst situation, with the global economy likely to be in a depression, Vietnam ’s economy would also be greatly affected, in terms of both economic and export growth.
Under such assumptions, the committee said Vietnam ’s GDP would only reach 5.2 – 5.5 percent, and government debt would be around 60.4 percent of GDP.
“In case of a real global economic depression, Vietnam ’s economy will be adversely affected not only in 2012, but also years afterwards,” concluded the committee.
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