World Economic outlook - taiwan economic growth outlook 2012 : The Polaris Research Institute cut its forecast Wednesday for Taiwan's 2012 economic growth, from 4.51 percent to 3.93 percent, citing weakening global demand. Polaris, one of Taiwan's leading economic think tanks, said the debt problems in the eurozone are expected to affect the growth of the world's economy and drag down global demand, which in turn will hurt Taiwan's exports.
The think tank has also revised downward it forecast for Taiwan's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2011 to 4.33 percent from of 4.73 percent based on similar concerns. The previous forecasts were made at the end of September but were revised in reflection of the fast changing world economy, the think tank said.
Taiwan's net exports for 2012 are expected to contribute about 3.03 percentage points to its GDP growth, while net exports for 2011 are expected to make up 3.71 percentage points of the economic growth, Polaris said.
The total fixed investments in the public and private sectors for 2012 are expected to fall 3.62 percent from a year earlier, compared with an estimated year-on-year fall of 3.54 percent for 2011.
It said the decline in fixed investments also resulted from slowing global demand. In addition, private consumption growth for 2012 is forecast at 3.1 percent from a year earlier, lower than the estimated 3.39 percent for 2011, Polaris said.
Taiwan's GDP is expected to grow 2.13 percent in the first quarter of next year, 3.15 percent in the second quarter, 4.66 percent in the third quarter and 5.58 percent fourth quarter, the think tank said.
In November, the government lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2011 to 4.51 percent from 4.56 percent and its 2012 economic growth estimate to 4.19 percent from 4.38 percent.
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