Moody predicts G-20 economic growth 2012-2013

World Economic outlook - Moody predicts G-20 economic growth 2012-2013 : Moody’s Investors Service has slashed its growth forecasts for the advanced and emerging nations in the G-20, citing an increase in the downside risks to global recovery.

In its latest Global Macro-Risk Outlook 2012-2013 update, the ratings agency says real growth in the G-20 economies will be about 2.8 per cent in the 2012 and 3.4 per cent in the following year. This is a respective 20 basis points and 10 basis points lower than Moody’s predicted in April.

According to the agency, the main risks to global growth are the deeper than expected recession in the eurozone, the danger of a hard landing in major emerging markets such as China, India and Brazil, an oil-price supply-side shock caused by resurfacing geopolitical risks and the potential for sudden and sharp fiscal tightening in the US next year.

G-20 advanced economies, which include the eurozone, the UK and the US, are expected to grow by about 1.4 per cent in 2012 and 2.0 per cent in 2013. This compares with 1.4 per cent last year and 3 per cent in 2010.

Moody’s group credit officer for sovereign risk Elena Duggar says: “In our view, fiscal consolidation efforts, weak consumer and business confidence, banking and household sector deleveraging, persistently high unemployment levels and real-estate market weakness will continue to constrain growth in advanced economies.”

The ratings agency also predicts G-20 emerging economies will grow by about 5.2 per cent in 2012 and 5.7 per cent next year. This is “materially lower” than the 6.6 per cent seen in 2011 and the 8 per cent achieved in 2010.

Duggar says: “We are revising downwards our forecast for these large emerging market economies, where the weaker external environment and decelerating domestic demand are causing a slowdown in growth momentum.

“We continue to expect that the slowdown in advanced economies and volatile capital flows will suppress growth in emerging markets.”

Related Post:

global economic

• Global Economic growth 2013 Expect Analyst
• Fitch Ratings- World economic growth outlook 2013-2014
• Thailand CPI november 2012
• IMF forecast Global Economic Growth Forecast 2012-2013
• Sweden government cut economic outlook 2012
• Armenia inflation rate March 2012
• Strategy summary and global economic outlook 2012
• World Economic Growth Forecast 2012-2013
• leaked draft of its IMF World Economic Outlook 2012
• 2012 Economic Freedom index download
• world economic freedom index 2012
• IMF will downgrade world economic outlook 2012
• World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland 25-29 January 2012
• 2013 world economic growth forecast United Nations
• World Bank economic outlook 2012-2013
• growth forecast for developing countries 2012-2013
• economic calendar 2012
• imf world economic outlook 2012
• economy and financial systems outlook 2012
• Reuters poll, World economy outlook 2012
• best economic predictions for 2012
• global economic outlook for 2012
• Citigroup Inc. and UBS AG cut global economic growth forecast 2012,