World Economic outlook - surveys of Chinese manufacturing activity, china purchasing Managers Index january : Two rival surveys of Chinese manufacturing activity out Friday agreed that the sector improved last month, helped by a build-up in new orders, but they differed over the extent of that improvement.
The official measure of the Purchasing Managers’ Index, published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, came in at 50.4 for January.
The official measure of the Purchasing Managers’ Index, published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, came in at 50.4 for January.
While the result was above the 50-point threshold — showing that manufacturers in the survey saw higher levels of activity — it marked a decline from 50.6 in December’s survey.
However, the final PMI reading in a separate, privately-compiled survey by HSBC, put the monthly PMI at 52.3, rising from the previous month’s 51.5 result.
The contrast in trend suggested some minor differences in the sample of manufacturers considered in the two surveys.
The official survey is based on the response from about 3,000 firms, while the HSBC survey gathers data from a smaller sample, of more than 420 manufacturers.
The two survey readings also fell on different sides of market expectations.
The official PMI reading of 50.6 was lower than the estimate of 51.0 from a Dow Jones Newswires poll of economists and also missed a 50.9 forecast from a Reuters survey.
On the other hand, the HSBC measure of 52.3 was greater than market estimates around 52, and also higher than HSBC’s own preliminary reading of 51.9, that was released late last month
The two PMI surveys, which are among the first economic indicators available on China each month, are keenly watched by markets in the country and beyond, and they often move markets across multiple asset classes.
In Friday’s Chinese stock action, the Shanghai Composite CN:000001 -0.02% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.44% each fell 0.4%, weighed by the lower-than-expected official PMI data.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +0.83% , which reflects the moves of several mining sector stocks, inched a little higher and was up 0.8%, while March crude-oil futures CLH3 +0.04% were little changed at $97.51.
And just as the results differed, so did analysts’ reactions.
“A higher reading of [HSBC’s] January final manufacturing PMI implies that China’s manufacturing activity is gaining further steam on the back of improving domestic conditions,” HSBC chief China economist Hongbin Qu said in a statement accompanying the data.
“We see increasing signals of a sustained growth recovery in the coming months: the steady investment growth led by infrastructure projects, the improving labor-market conditions boosting consumer spending, and the ongoing re-stocking process to lift production growth,” Qu said.
Referring to the official PMI data, however, IHS Global Insight economists Xianfang Ren and Alistair Thornton said that “things look a little shaky. ... Indeed, the economy has yet to generate the type of self-perpetuating growth that is needed to put the recovery on a comfortable footing.”
”It is perhaps most worrying that the recovery is as fragile as it is, given the surge in loan roll-overs, corporate bailouts and infrastructure spending that has dragged the economy back to life over the past six months,” they said
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