Saturday, September 17, 2011

australian economic forecast 2011-2012

World Economic outlook - australian economic forecast 2011-2012 ; The favourable outlook for the Australian economy is supported by improving global conditions, although the international recovery remains uneven following the GFC and risks remain elevated. The world economy continues to recover and fears that growth would not be sustained have receded. Financial conditions have also improved, and global risk aversion and financial market volatility have moderated, notwithstanding ongoing concerns in some European countries. Looking ahead, the recovery in advanced economies is forecast to consolidate, while growth in the large emerging economies is expected to moderate to more sustainable rates. Accordingly, the global economy is expected to grow 4¼ per cent in 2011 and 4½ per cent in 2012, down from 5 per cent growth in 2010.

The Australian economy, house prices and economic outlook
Back in April last year I suggested that the Australian economy was not quite as robust as most market commentators appeared to think and that it was quite possible for economic conditions to deteriorate quite markedly over the next few years. So now one year later after I wrote about a possible economic slump in Australia let’s have a look at how events have unfolded since then. Read More..

IMF: Australian Economy Forecast 2011-2012
The IMF as part of its annual consultations on Australian economic developments with Australian authorities released some preliminary statements last week. The statements provided some insight into where the IMF believes the Australian economy is heading and potential risks that may derail preliminary forecasts. Read More..

Australian Federal Budget forecasts return to surplus in 2012-13
The Australian budget is expected to return to surplus in 2012-13 after an expected deficit of $22.6 billion in 2011-12 (all figures AUD). The forecast surplus in 2012-13 is ahead of any advanced economy.

Real GDP growth is expected to increase 4 per cent in 2011-12 while unemployment is expected to fall from 5 to 4.5 per cent during the next two years. These forecasts are based on Australia’s strong recent economic performance, the continuing high demand for natural resources and moderation of inflation to around 10 year lows.

The budget forecasts strong growth of 6.5 per cent in exports in 2011-12 as production of minerals and resources expands to meet global demand, particularly in Asia. Imports are also forecast to increase strongly, driven by robust domestic demand and the strong Australian dollar. Read More...

Australia Mining Report Q3 2011
Australia is a leading player in many segments of the global mining industry. Owing to its substantial deposits, the country possesses an array of minerals including iron ore, nickel, bauxite, copper, gold, silver, uranium, diamonds, zinc and coal. We expect that the value of the mining sector will reach US$124bn by 2015 growing at an annual average rate of 7.8% over the forecast period, from US$87.0bn in 2010. This growth is fairly uneven with 2011 figures relatively low because of flooding at the start of the year, before picking up as a plethora of projects, most notably by Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Xstrata, come online. Read more

Moody's Affirms Australia's NSW Rating, But Watching Government Strategy
-Moody's Investors Service kept Australia's New South Wales state credit rating at Aaa after its annual budget, but said it will examine whether the government can meet its deficit and debt targets.

New South Wales forecasts a A$718 million budget deficit in the 2011-2012 fiscal year and has pledged to balance the budget in the years after, beginning with a A$292 million surplus in 2012-2013. Net debt is forecast to peak at 2.8% of gross state product in 2014. Read more

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