Sunday, September 11, 2011

china economic outlook 2011-2012

World Economic outlook - china economic outlook 2011-2012 : As the world largest emerging economy, China has kept a stable and rapid growth for years. However, China's economic growth is now challenged by the sluggish world economy and heating domestic inflation.

Economists from China and Singapore jointly release a report about China's economic outlook. Let's see the details. Saturday, economists from Xiamen University and the National University of Singapore released their latest report for China's macroeconomic outlook from 2011-2012.

Chen Kang, professor of economics from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore reveals the research on the forum.

"China will still achieve healthy economic growths in 2011 and 2012, and the inflation pressure will ease gradually. A hard landing is hardly possible. We forecast a GDP growth of 9.3 percent for 2011, with CPI inflation at 5.3 percent. Affected by the international economy, the GDP growth will slow down to 8.9 percent next year and inflation will ease to 4.9 percent. This is still above the policy target of 4 percent. The inflationary pressure will remain challenging in this year and next."

According to Chen, the forecast is based on "prudently optimistic" assumptions that the United States economy will grow by 1.7 percent this year and further bounces back to achieve a normal speed of growth.

Meanwhile the forecast is outlined on the backdrop that the eurozone will stay out of a sovereign debt crisis this year and slows down a bit next year, dragged by the deepening crisis.

The report notes that China's inflation will stay high at 4 percent to 5.4 percent this year and next year. Given the complex factors leading to the inflation, it will take quite some time for it to be stabilized.

Economists at the forum also urge that China should keep its hand tight on inflation and avoid excess investments aimed at a faster growth of the economy by stimulating it.

Xiamen University and the National University of Singapore have been releasing their forecasts for the Chinese economy twice a year since 2006. They are also in partnership with the Economic Information Daily of China to release the forecasts in China. source

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