Thursday, December 1, 2011

China consumer price index (CPI) forecast 2012

World Economic outlook - China consumer price index (CPI) forecast 2012 : According to Peng Wenshen, chief economist at China International Capital Corporation (CICC), new loan growth for full year 2011 may range from between 7.2 trillion yuan and 7.3 trillion yuan, falling short of the target of 7.5 trillion yuan.

Li Yang, deputy director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, predicts new loan growth in November to hit 500-600 billion yuan, and predicted that there will not be a loosening of monetary policies in 2012.

The People’s Bank of China has since October included the deposits of non-deposit financial institutions in deposit-taking financial institutions, and the deposits of the public housing reserve fund, into the calculations of M2. Despite the adjustment, M2 growth in October was 10.9 percent, compared with 13 percent in September.

According to an unnamed market expert, the proportion of yuan-denominated loans in M2 fell from 70-80 percent previously to between 50 percent and 60 percent.

Assuming a 14 percent M2 growth rate in 2012, new loan growth next year will be about eight trillion yuan, added the expert.

The central government may lower the target inflation rate for 2012 to as low as 3.5 percent at the upcoming Central Economic Conference, added the source close to the central bank.

The research center of Bank of Communications (601328,3328.HK) forecasts the consumer price index (CPI) to increase by less than four percent in December, and for full year 2011 CPI growth to hit 5.4 percent. The bank predicts the CPI growth rate to range from between 3.0 and 3.5 percent next year.

China's consumer price index (CPI), a key gauge of inflation, rose 5.5 percent year-on-year last month, a further decline from 6.1 percent in September, after surging to a 37-month high of 6.5 percent in July.

The World Bank estimated that China's inflationary pressure will ease further next year, predicting that CPI will grow 5.3 percent for this year and 4.1 percent for next year.

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