Thursday, December 1, 2011

UK inflation rate, Cpi forecast 2012-2013

World Economic outlook - UK inflation rate, Cpi forecast 2012-2013 : Inflation is set to fall to a sliver above 1.2% during 2013 and growth to just under 1% next year, the numerical forecasts underpinning the Bank of England's November Inflation Report show.

The forecasts, released Wednesday, show CPI falling from an average 4.71% in the fourth quarter of this year to a low of 1.21% in the second quarter of 2013 and just 1.27% by the fourth quarter of 2013. The minutes of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee's November meeting showed members divided over whether the forecasts supported the case for further stimulus in the future.

The forecasts do show inflation rising towards the end of the three year forecast horizon. On the modal, market rate projection CPI edges back up to 1.5% by the fourth quarter of 2014.

"Some members noted that the balance of risks to inflation in the November Inflation Report projections meant that a further expansion of the asset purchase programme might well become warranted in due course; anticipation of that might itself have an effect on asset prices and demand. Some other members judged that the risks to inflation around the target were more balanced," the minutes said.

The forecasts show the upside skew evident in earlier inflation reports has disappeared. The mean and median forecasts are indistinguishable from the modal projection. The probability of inflation falling below 1% in Q4 2013 is put at over 40%.

It is tricky to strip out the BOE's calendar year growth forecasts, due to its use of a growth "backcast", but the implied 2012 forecast is now estimated to come in at 0.9%, down from the previous forecast of 2.16% only three months ago.

The forecasts for growth highlight the clear risk that the UK could slip back into recession over the coming quarters. Growth in Q4, and Q1 and Q2 2012, is expected to be virtualy flat on the quarter, before picking up to around trend in the second half of the year. Growth is expected to pick up strongly in 2013, rising by 2.77%.

Cpi forecast 2012, UK Inflation Forecast 2012, UK economic growth forecast 2012

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1 comment:

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